Ryan Tannehill was drafted by the Miami Dolphins with the eight overall pick in the NFL draft a couple days ago. There has been a recent trend of quarterbacks shooting up draft boards because teams think that if they don't draft a quarterback in the first round, they have no chance of grabbing a starting quarterback. Yet if you look at the most recent quarterback classes, you'll see that this just isn't true.
2011 (It's still a little to early to tell which quarterbacks are really for real, but we'll just base it off of last year)
Elite
Cam Newton CAR 1, 1
Pro Bowl Caliber
Andy Dalton CIN 2, 3
Steady Starters
Jake Locker TEN 1, 8
Christian Ponder MIN 1, 12
T.J. Yates HOU 5, 152 Overall
Busts
Blaine Gabbert JAC 1, 10
Analysis: Cam Newton looks to be the best quarterback in this class and if you look back, it was a no brainer for a Carolina team who had no offense the year prior to take Newton to energize the team.
The Bengals are a perfect example of how to build a team with young players. At number four overall in the draft, they were to high to take a guy like Locker or Gabbert, so they took A.J. Green instead, giving them a potent offensive weapon. Then when Andy Dalton, a very good starter in college, was still on the board, they grabbed him. Picking a quarterback outside of the first round means they are not obligated to him. If Andy Dalton was terrible in his first year with the Bengals, they could part ways and not feel like they wasted a first round pick.
On the flip side, the Jaguars were stuck with Blaine Gabbert last year after taking him in the first round. He was beyond terrible, but they are now obligated to him for at least another year, probably even more.
2010
Elite
None
Pro Bowl Caliber
Sam Bradford STL 1, 1
Steady Starters
Tim Tebow DEN 1, 25
Colt McCoy CLE 3, 31
Busts
Jimmy Clausen CAR 2, 15
Analysis: Like the Panthers in the 2011 draft, the Rams had no where else to go but to pick Sam Bradford, which even though he regressed last season, is still a very good pick.
Going back to the Panthers, they made a quality decision in this draft with Clausen even though he turned out to be miserable. They could've waited maybe until the third round to select him, but with a team in such dyer need for a quarterback, a second round pick that turns out to go to waste is no harm no foul. The Browns did the same thing, taking McCoy in the third round of this draft.
The other team to take a quarterback in the first round, the Broncos, easily could've waited to take Tim Tebow and though it worked out pretty well for them all things considered, they easily could've went elsewhere and waited for Tebow.
2009
Elite
Matthew Stafford DET 1, 1
Pro Bowl Caliber
None
Steady Starters
Mark Sanchez NYJ 1, 5
Josh Freeman TB 1, 17
Busts
None
Analysis: The biggest debate looking back at this draft is whether the Jets made a mistake taking Mark Sanchez. Sanchez is a tricky quarterback to evaluate as to whether he was a mistake or not. For starters, he had a very good college career and looked pro ready. Second, he entered in a very good position with a defense and running game in place which allowed him to have success. The problem is that if you put Sanchez on most other teams, he probably doesn't even have a job right now. We see with the Jets now that they have obligated themselves to him because he was a quarterback drafted in the top five of the draft. This may turn out to set their franchise back a few years or it could pay them dividends if he develops. Mark Sanchez is a trick quarterback to evaluate so the only thing I can say is be very, very careful with making a USC quarterback your franchise quarterback because a guy like Mark Sanchez or Matt Lineart seem way to cocky and arrogant to be quality quarterbacks.
2008
Elite
Matt Ryan ATL 1, 3
Pro Bowl Caliber
Joe Flacco BAL 1, 18
Matt Flynn GB 7, 209 Overall
Steady Starters
Chad Henne MIA 2, 24
Busts
None
Analysis: Matt Ryan was definitely the right pick by the Falcons, he was pro ready and he had the right makeup to take over and bring the Falcons back to prominence.
If you look at Matt Flynn, he was a steady quarterback in college and was a proven winner, leading LSU to the national title. That late in the draft, he is a great pick because as you can see now, guys like Flynn and Tom Brady drafted in later rounds that were proven winners in college at least have a chance to become proven winners in the pros.
Chad Henne was a decent pick by the Dolphins but as you can see, the Dolphins stuck with him a little bit too long which has set their franchise back.
The quarterback up for debate from this draft is Joe Flacco. The reason why I don't like the pick is because coming from a Division 1AA school, Flacco was unproven against the highest level of players at the college level. Second, he was a mid first round pick which generally is not a good formula for quarterbacks. But I do like this pick for one main reason and that is the Ravens had a defense already in place. Flacco could and has settled in and now that he has a running game and a few weapons, the Ravens are a Super Bowl contender.
Final Analysis
Rule #1: Quarterbacks must have a lot of success in college if they are going to be a top 10 pick
This was the major flaw with the Raiders selecting JaMarcus Russell number one overall; he wasn't even fucking good in college! Look at some top 10 picks over the years, from Cam Newton to Matt Stafford to even Mark Sanchez, those guys had success in college, so it is at least justifiable to take them with a top 10 pick.
Rule #2: If you can't grab a definitive franchise quarterback that's a sure thing in the top 10, wait until the second round at least
Exhibit A of how to do this the right way, the Cincinnati Bengals in 2010. They figured out that besides Cam Newton, none of the other quarterbacks were sure things, so why obligate yourself to a quarterback you're building your franchise around who's not even a sure thing (and by sure thing, I mean you're 98 percent sure). So the Bengals waited, selected Andy Dalton in the second round, things worked out and him and first round selection A.J. Green were a big reason why the Bengals went to the playoffs. Exhibit A of how not to do this the right way is the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2010. They realized they desperately needed a quarterback but instead of being patient and selecting a better player to fill another need, they felt they just had to have Blaine Gabbert, someone who wasn't even that good in college and someone who had a lot of question marks leading up to the draft. You wonder why the Jaguars are usually always selecting in the top 10 after 6-10 seasons, that is why.
But wait, Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler and Ben Roethlisberger are a couple quarterbacks drafted in the mid first round, does that mean you pass on them?
And here is the big thing you have to understand about rule #2. Take Aaron Rodgers for example. He slipped to #24 overall to Green Bay, but there was also fierce debate over whether the 49ers would take him or Alex Smith. So Aaron Rodgers could very well have been the first overall pick. Look at Ben Roethlisberger, he was ranked higher on some teams draft boards than Phillip Rivers who went #4 overall. Like Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger easily could've been a top 5 pick, making him a justifiable pick to be your franchise quarterback. Same thing for Jay Cutler who was thought of in the same regard as Matt Lineart and even Vince Young. So this is rule #2b- If a quarterback who is very much considered a top 10 pick, yet he slips to the mid first round, he is still a good pick to become your franchise quarterback assuming he doesn't break any of the other rules
Rule #3: If drafting a franchise quarterback in the top 10, make sure they have the proper intangibles such as leadership, poise, work ethic, etc.
What do you think the difference between a JaMarcus Russell and a Cam Newton is? One doesn't have a work ethic and one does. What's the difference between Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Lineart? One has leadership and the other doesn't. All of these guys are talented, it's usually certain tools that determine who succeeds and who doesn't at the quarterback position.
Rule #3b- With all due respect to Carson Palmer, Matt Lineart and Mark Sanchez, Avoid drafting USC quarterbacks, they just never seem to have a work ethic (I do like Matt Barkley a lot however, he might be the only exemption)
Rule #4: Avoid drafting a system quarterback in the top 10 to become your franchise quarterback
Alex Smith is just about to break away from his bust label after last season, but he was a humungous bust in part because he was a clear example of a system quarterback at Utah. He struggled to adapt to the pro system (it wasn't the only reason he struggled, he had to deal with a lot of instability). Same thing with Vince Young, though he had his moments, he could never really adapt to a pro system due to his system in college. Both were supposed to be franchise quarterbacks and both really haven't panned out for the most part.
Rule #5: Drafting a proven winner in college in the later rounds is always a smart decision
Tom Brady and Matt Flynn are two perfect examples, you just can't really lose by drafting them. I won't be surprised if former Alabama quarterback Greg Mcllroy ends up being a good starting quarterback sometime in the future.
Rule #6: If you truly have no protection, don't draft a franchise quarterback just so he can get his ass kicked
I can't even say David Carr was really that, it was more because they didn't have any blocking. Same with Alex Smith, he could never really get any protection.
Predictions for 2012 QB Draft Class
Andrew Luck, Indianpolis Colts
Rule #1- Yes, had very successful college career
Rule #2- Yes, pretty much as sure thing as it gets
Rule #3- Yes, appears to have as good intangibles
Rule #4- Yes, is not a system quarterback, most likely will adapt very well
Rule #5- Not going in later rounds obviously, but was a winner
Rule #6- Might be an issue, but most likely not
Luck should be one of the better quarterbacks in the league as early as next year potentially. He isn't in the best situation in Indianapolis due to the tremendous overhaul.
Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins
Rule #1- Yes, he won the Heisman trophy
Rule #2- Yes, Griffin is a little bit more sure than Cam Newton was, so all signs point to yes
Rule #3- Leadership, poise, work ethic, Griffin has it all
Rule #4- This is a little problematic because I'm not sure if Baylor's offense will suit Griffin well for the pro game
Rule #5- Griffin took a mediocre Baylor team and had them finish in the top 10, yes
Rule #6- This could be an issue, but Griffin is mobile, so it's not a big issue
I can see Griffin being an absolute stud or I could see him taking a couple of years to adjust to the NFL. However, I think Washington has enough in place already that Griffin should adjust and have a good rookie year and a great career.
Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins
Rule #1- Not a lot of success, strike one right off the bat
Rule #2- Tannehill is a second round pick, it's as simple as that
Rule #3- This doesn't look to be too much of a problem, but if Tannehill struggles at times in college, what will happen to him in the NFL
Rule #4- I didn't watch much of Texas A&M last year, but I think the system is he can suit him well in the NFL
Rule #5- Won't go in the later rounds, but isn't a proven winner anyway
Rule #6- He has Jake Long on his left side, so protection should be solid for Tannehill
What a reach by the Dolphins. Tannehill is a clear second round pick, yet they picked him in the first round and in the top 10 for christ's sake. If Tannehill doesn't pan out, this will set the Dolphins back a couple of years. And I don't think he's going to pan out.
