NBA Round 2 Predictions

     The first round is in the books. The Grizzlies upset my NBA finals pick the Spurs in 6 games to cap off what was a surprisingly exciting first round in the NBA playoffs. No series went 7, but may games were tight and provided must see television, which you don't often see in the NBA playoffs. So now we look ahead.
     The Eastern Conference features a glorious matchup between the Celtics and the Heat and a not so appealing matchup on paper between the Bulls and the Hawks. Let's take a look at the four teams remaining in the East. The top seeded Chicago Bulls defeated the Indiana Pacers in 5 games, but each of the first four games went right down to the wire and the series could've easily went 6 or 7 games. One thing I have learned though is that it isn't always a bad thing for one of the favorites to be challenged in the first round. Back in 2008, the Celtics went to 7 games with the Atlanta Hawks, an inferior team. That series sent the Celtics a message saying that they couldn't just show up and they would automatically win. If the Hawks did not challenge the Celtics in that series, I firmly believe the Celtics ultimately fall short of winning the NBA title. Going back to the Bulls, I think that they're some differences in those two teams; the Celtics were a veteran team who needed a humbling experience to reignite the fire in them. The Bulls have not accomplished anything besides having a stellar regular season this past season, so they wouldn't come into the first round of the playoffs cocky, at least I don't think they would. So the Bulls struggles with the Pacers would alarm me if I were a Bulls fan (I'm not a Bulls guy or a Derrick Rose guy).
     Now, let's analyze the Miami Heat, well actually there's not much to analyze. They beat the 76ers with relative ease although the Sixers grabbed a game. I saw nothing from the Heat that would tell me that they have serious concerns against the Celtics.
     The most impressive team thus far in the postseason has easily been the Boston Celtics. The Celtics swept the New York Knicks, dominating in the final two games of the series. I was shocked, even though the Celtics are my pick to come out of the East. I thought the Knicks would get a game or two and compete (well they played well the first two games). But either the Knicks are terrible, which I don't think they are,  or the Celtics are peaking at the right time. I'll take the latter.
     The Atlanta Hawks advanced past the first round for the third straight season defeating the Orlando Magic in 6 games. I called this one right on the money, I had seen Orlando this year and they just had a funny type of season. When Dwight Howard, who has no offensive skill besides dunking is your best offensive player and is the one you rely on the most on the offensive end, you have problems. So nothing surprised me about the Hawks performance like they surprised other people. I think they have a chance of upsetting the Bulls and I think they certainly will take a game or two unlike their past two second round exits.
    Now, my second round predictions.

Chicago Bulls v.s. Atlanta Hawks 


     Most people seem to think that this is a breeze for the Bulls. In the words of Lee Corso, not so fast my friends! The Hawks are now seasoned in the playoffs and they know what it takes to win. They have most of the ingredients that could spark an upset. They have clutch shot makers in the 4th quarter with Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford and they have interior presence with Al Horford, Josh Smith and even lesser known guys like Zaza Pachulia. Now if we examine the Bulls, they have Derrick Rose. Yes, we know that, but will Carlos Boozer be more of an impact than he was in the first round? Will Kyle Korver continue to hit key threes in the 4th quarter as the playoffs tighten up? I guess you're thinking this might not be such a breeze after all.
Series X-Factor: Derrick Rose, Bulls- Yes, he is the X-Factor because the Bulls go as he goes.
Key Player Atlanta: Joe Johnson- One decisive matchup is who makes the clutch plays when it matters most, him or Derrick Rose?
Key Player Chicago: Joakim Noah- Besides Derrick Rose, Noah is the player that allows the Bulls to have to edge rebounding which should be key in this series.
Key Matchup: Derrick Rose v.s. Atlanta Defense- Will Atlanta be able to slow down Derrick Rose when it matters most, simple as that.
Prediction- The Bulls have questions, the Hawks have answers.....except for Derrick Rose. The Hawks put a real scare into the Bulls and the Bulls will get exposed in some areas, but they will have enough to scrape past the Hawks and into the Conference Finals.
Chicago in six 
Series complexion (home team victory in CAPS)
1 CHI 2 atl 3 ATL 4 chi 5 CHI 6 chi

Miami Heat v.s. Boston Celtics 


     I think the NBA wanted this series to occur one round later. But we're not going to complain. This is when the playoffs really get fun. We got the new big three v.s. the old big three. This series has so many intriguing match-ups, I don't even know where to start. I guess it's going to ultimately come down to whether the talent of Miami's big three is too much for the soon to be expiring Celtics. But another important match-up will be whether Boston still has the front court advantage now that Kendrick Perkins is gone. Now we will see whether the Perkins trade was a smart one. Another sub plot is LeBron James. Ultimately I think this series comes down to his ability to make plays when it matters most. He is the most looked upon player in the league and it's time for him to step up. After all, he has the pieces now, or does he still not have a good enough bench for his liking. As for who the Heat need to stop, it is clearly Rajon Rondo. Rondo was a nightmare for the Knicks, but if the Heat find some one up to the challenge to guard Rondo, can he still cause as much damage?
Series X-Factor: Ray Allen, Celtics- I was going to say Rondo or Wade or someone like that, but Ray Allen can take over games with his shooting ability and he can also win them. When Allen isn't making his shots, the Celtics have a lot tougher time winning games, simple as that.
Key Player Boston: Kevin Garnett- He looked like his old self against New York and if he continues to play like that, the Heat will have a tough time in the post.
Key Player Miami: Chris Bosh- Like Garnett, he is playing his best ball at the right time. Bosh makes things a hell of a lot easier for James and Wade, which obviously increases the Heat's chances of winning.
Key Matchup: LeBron James v.s. Paul Pierce- This has been the way it's been for the past couple of years, so until LeBron James can win the 4th quarter battle with Pierce, his Heat squad will be on the wrong end of another playoff series.
Prediction: The Celtics are the hottest team in the NBA, but they also catch the Heat at the right time as well. The Celtics certainly have the chemistry and experience because they have been down this road before, the Heat however have not. They will not see games as tight as this and their past suggests that they will crumble. The Heat do not match up well against Rondo, and whoever guards Rondo, say Dwyane Wade, then Ray Allen becomes free for open shots. Chris Bosh certainly can shake things up if he can produce, but the Celtics still have the advantage down low given the defense that Jermaine O'Neal has given them. And after all of this becomes settled, it still comes down to LeBron James and his execution in the clutch. Will he come through this time? Not quite.
Celtics in six 
Series complexion
1 bos 2 MIA 3 BOS 4 BOS 5 MIA 6 BOS

So I might as well tell you what I think will happen after this. I think that the winner of the Heat/Celtics series will beat the Bulls in six games. Since I like the Celtics over the Heat, I still like the Celtics to win the Eastern Conference.

      But enough with the east, let's take a look at the wild west. The Memphis Grizzlies just knocked off the Spurs in a very surprising outcome at least in my opinion. The Grizzlies showed that they can play defense, which goes a long way in the playoffs. They just had too much youth and energy and the Spurs could not match up. I was completely blindsided by the Grizzlies thinking they maybe would get a game off the Spurs.
     Another series that surprised me was the Lakers/Hornets series. I though the Los Angles Lakers looked complacent and bored at times as they let Chris Paul go right through their whole team. They have looked like this before, but they are a year older. It certainly helps the Lakers in the long term that San Antonio is knocked out, so the Lakers may back into the Finals anyway.
     The Dallas Mavericks are the team most likely to bounce the Lakers. They were dealt a difficult first round series against Portland, but they survived and I think the Mavericks look as formidable as they ever have in the Dirk Nowitzki era. The Mavericks have veteran leadership with Jason Kidd and Nowitzki, scoring in many areas with Nowitzki, Jason Terry and Shawn Marion and a major post presence with Tyson Chandler. The Mavericks have an excellent chance of winning the NBA title.
     And now the dark horse of the whole NBA playoffs, the Oklahoma City Thunder. They have two dynamic players in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook and they now have x-factors in the post with Kendrick Perkins and an up and coming Serge Ibaka. The Thunder are favored to back into the Conference Finals and then from there there is no telling them that they cannot win the whole thing.
So let's get to the match-ups.

Oklahoma City Thunder  v.s. Memphis Grizzlies 


     This is definitely the least intriguing series out of the rest of the semi-finals, but idiots like me said that the Grizzlies would get destroyed by the Spurs in the first round. So this series is an interesting one. The Thunder have the edge in star power with Durant and Westbrook, but the Grizzlies might be able to contain them given their depth and athleticism around the perimeter. A lot will depend on the Thunder bench to make plays in the 4th quarter.
Series X-Factor: Zach Randolph, Grizzlies- Randolph is the best interior player in the series and he is also the Grizzlies best player. If he plays like he did against the Spurs, then there is no doubt the Grizzlies have a fighting chance.
Key Player Memphis: Tony Allen- He will be the one with the most responsibility for guarding Durant. Allen has experience guarding some of the best players in the NBA in the postseason with Boston, so he should have some success guarding Durant.
Key Player Oklahoma City: Kendrick Perkins- They traded for Perkins at the trade dead line and if he does his job and contains Zach Randolph, the Thunder might breeze into the Conference Finals.
Key Matchup: Russell Westbrook v.s. Mike Conley- Conley will need to step up and slow down Westbrook or the Grizzlies will not be very competitive in this series.
Prediction: The Thunder have two dynamic players who can take over a series while the Grizzlies have none. That along with the Thunder getting slightly more production from their bench will lead the Thunder to the Western Conference finals.
Thunder in five 
Series complexion
1 OKC 2 OKC 3 okc 4 MEM 5 OKC

Los Angeles Lakers v.s. Dallas Mavericks 




     This series may turn out to decide the West. The Mavericks were very impressive in all but one game against the Trail Blazers when they blew an 18 point 4th quarter lead and the Lakers were less than impressive in a six game series victory over the Hornets. The Mavericks match up well with the Lakers and I think the Mavericks may even have more depth than the Lakers. The Lakers certainly can not take any games off in this series like they did in New Orleans or rest assured, Dallas will win the series.
Series X-Factor: Pau Gasol, Lakers- He has been an X-Factor ever since he's been a Laker, but Gasol needs to perform better than he did against a weaker New Orleans team.
Key Player Mavericks: Dirk Nowitzki- The door is open for the Mavericks to get back to the NBA Finals and it will come down to their leader's ability to lead them there.
Key Player Lakers: Kobe Bryant- When is Kobe not the key player? It's up to him to make big shots in the 4th quarter, which he usually does.
Key Matchup: Tyson Chandler v.s. Andrew Bynum- The battle for the rebounding edge begins and ends with these two players. Of course, Bynum will need to stay healthy for this to even be a battle.
Prediction: The Lakers will not be three-peating because it is the Mavericks time. They have all the pieces together and Jason Kidd, who I have not mentioned thus far, will come up huge in the clutch to win a decisive game in this series.
Mavericks in six 
Series complexion
1 LAL 2 dal 3 DAL 4 lal 5 dal 6 DAL

Like the Eastern Conference, the winner of Lakers/Mavericks will go onto win the Western Conference, so I say that the Mavericks will defeat the Thunder in a tight series to move on to the NBA Finals. From there, the Boston Celtics will be too much for the Dallas Mavericks. I'll take the Celtics in five or six.