It comes down to this. The Miami Heat, who many people expected to get here before the season and the Dallas Mavericks, a team that many thought to be washed up but has clearly become the best team in the West this season. Miami looks unstoppable and it seems that they are hitting their stride at just the right time. Dallas also looks better than they ever have and it's all about Dirk Nowitzki playing his best basketball of his career. Here is a look at the match-ups in this series and my prediction.
Point Guard
Mike Bibby v.s. Jason Kidd
Two veteran and playoff tested point guards. Both will be selfless and both will play a role in this series. But Jason Kidd means much more to his team than Bibby does, which is why Kidd allows the Mavericks to have the edge at point guard.
Edge: Mavericks
Prediction: Jason Kidd will play a pretty big factor late in games and Mike Bibby will make the occasional three pointer but not much else.
Shooting GuardDwyane Wade v.s. Jason Terry
Wade is the second best player in the NBA after LeBron James in my opinion, but that doesn't mean Jason Terry can't play a bigger role than Wade in this series. Terry can go off almost as well as Wade could, not quite, but he could.
Edge: Heat
Prediction: Jason Terry will go off in a game or two, but Wade will take over a game late in the 4th quarter and have a case to be named NBA Finals MVP.
Small Forward
LeBron James v.s. Shawn Marion LeBron has come of age this postseason. I said in an earlier post that LeBron would decide the outcome of the playoffs and so far the Heat have not been stopped. That being said, Shawn Marion can still play defense. He will need to play even better than he did against Kevin Durant if the Mavericks want to have a serious chance in this series.
Edge: Heat
Prediction: Marion contains LeBron, but LeBron takes over games late, which is why he will be named NBA Finals MVP.
Power Forward Chris Bosh v.s. Dirk Nowitzki
Bosh played great during the Chicago series, but Nowitzki is simply not missing any sort of shot. I don't think Bosh can guard Nowitzki, but Bosh is certainly capable of scoring as many points as Nowitzki which could be a major factor in this series. But until Dirk misses his shots, I don't see this happening.
Edge: Mavericks
Prediction: The Chris Bosh that we saw in some of his poor performances this year comes out in a few games this series and Dirk Nowitzki will keep the Mavericks alive in this series.
Center
Joel Anthony v.s. Tyson Chandler
Both are stout on the defensive end, but Chandler has the edge offensively. Chandler has been outstanding this season, but Anthony can match whatever Chandler does.
Edge: Mavericks
Prediction: Chandler plays a major factor in giving the Mavericks the edge down low in this series.
Bench
The Heat suddenly have more of a supporting cast now, but the Mavericks are still the better team than the Heat.
Edge: Mavericks
Prediction: Mike Miller plays the biggest role of any of the other role players on either team.
In an Offensive, High Scoring Game, the edge goes to- the Heat
In a Defensive, Low Scoring Game, the edge goes to- the Heat
For the Mavericks to win, they need.....
1) Dirk Nowitzki to be one of the best two players on the court
2) A offensive spark from Jason Terry and/or Jason Kidd, Shawn Marion, J.J. Barea, etc.
3) Shawn Marion to contain LeBron
4) All members of the big three must be held under 30 points on average in this series
For the Heat to win, they need....
1) LeBron to continue taking over games along with Dwyane Wade
2) In each game, they need 1 of big 3 to score over 30
3) Clamp down on Nowitzki and make another play beat them
Prediction: This series is closer than one might expect. Dirk Nowitzki will keep the Mavericks in the series, Tyson Chandler will provide the defense underneath and Jason Kidd and other Maverick veterans will come up big when they need them too. But the fact is is that it comes down to LeBron. And LeBron will get it done. Dwyane Wade will be his usual stuff and be outstanding, but in the 4th quarter when all the chips are down, LeBron comes up big and wins his first championship, although he "shares" this one with Wade, Bosh and co.
Miami Heat in six/seven games, but I'll say Seven
Series Complexion (home win in CAPS)
1 MIA, 2 dal, 3 DAL, 4 mia, 5 mia, 6 dal, 7 MIA
All I hope is that this series is exciting and is must-watch television. Since the Celtics are out, that is all I hope for. I am rooting for the Mavericks because I want to see Jason Kidd and Dirk Nowitzki win, but I just can't see it happening. The Mavericks have surprised us before however. No one gave them a chance to beat the Lakers (I did). So nothing in this series would surprise me. I think it is most likely that the Heat win in 5 or 6 games and it is least likely that the Mavericks sweep the Heat. I just hope that all the games are fun and well played and hopefully we'll see some overtime games, a game winning shot or two and a Game 7. Enjoy the NBA Finals
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